Den Bosch 0-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 21 as Den Bosch welcome Emmen to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 January 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Emmen have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Emmen are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Den Bosch, 1 for Emmen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Emmen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Emmen in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 45% versus Emmen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 60% | Emmen 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 0.85 xG and Emmen 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.833 / defence 1.240 | Emmen attack 0.700 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.547. Data: 20 Den Bosch games / 20 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 24% | Draw 28% | Emmen 48%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Emmen 2.08. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 40% | Emmen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 24% | Draw 28% | Emmen 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Den Bosch 0.85 / Emmen 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.833 / def 1.240 | Emmen attack 0.700 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.547 • Poisson stance: Emmen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Emmen xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Emmen kick off?
Den Bosch vs Emmen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Den Bosch 0 - 2 Emmen.
Where is Den Bosch vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Emmen part of?
Den Bosch vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 24% chance of winning, Emmen a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Den Bosch and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Emmen?
Record (1 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | Emmen 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and Emmen in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Emmen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (0.83) and Emmen's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
24%
4.24
28%
3.57
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.19
1.34
Emmen xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
6%
16.23
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 15.0 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.34 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 20 games, going 8W 2D 10L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.95 PPG from 20 outings (12W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 6W 0D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Den Bosch are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 2.00 points per game from 10 outings (6W 2D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.50 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Emmen in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 8W 2D 10L in their last 20 games (1.30 PPG), while Emmen have gone 12W 3D 5L in their last 20 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.80 PPG; Emmen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Emmen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when Den Bosch won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Emmen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 40%, Emmen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Den Bosch) and 50% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 30% of games; Emmen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 50% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Den Bosch's matches and 50% of Emmen's.
Do Den Bosch and Emmen tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Emmen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Den Bosch 0-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 0.85 xG and Emmen 1.34 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.83 / defence 1.24 against Emmen attack 0.70 / defence 0.87, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 24% | Draw 28% | Emmen 48%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 60%, Emmen 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Emmen's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.