Den Bosch 1-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 7 as Den Bosch welcome Emmen to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vliert this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Emmen have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Den Bosch 1.70 PPG, Emmen 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Emmen, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Den Bosch.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Emmen winning.
It is worth noting that Emmen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Emmen in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 48% versus Emmen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 57% | Emmen 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.73 xG and Emmen 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.241 / defence 0.854 | Emmen attack 1.053 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.344. Data: 44 Den Bosch games / 44 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 47% | Draw 28% | Emmen 25%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Emmen 4.00. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 50% | Emmen 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 47% | Draw 28% | Emmen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Den Bosch 1.73 / Emmen 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.241 / def 0.854 | Emmen attack 1.053 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Emmen xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Emmen kick off?
Den Bosch vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Den Bosch 1 - 0 Emmen.
Where is Den Bosch vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Emmen part of?
Den Bosch vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 47% chance of winning, Emmen a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Den Bosch and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Emmen?
Record (4 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | Emmen 4W.
What form are Den Bosch and Emmen in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Emmen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (1.24) and Emmen's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.58
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.94
1.21
Emmen xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
4%
22.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.21 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 10D 22L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.48 PPG from 44 outings (19W 8D 17L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 4W 7D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.45 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Emmen in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 12W 10D 22L in their last 44 games (1.05 PPG), while Emmen have gone 19W 8D 17L in their last 44 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 0.90 PPG; Emmen away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when Den Bosch won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 62%, Emmen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Den Bosch and 67% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Den Bosch's games and 62% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Den Bosch's matches and 67% of Emmen's.
Do Den Bosch and Emmen tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Emmen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out Emmen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Emmen 1-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.73 xG and Emmen 1.21 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Emmen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.24 / defence 0.85 against Emmen attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 47% | Draw 28% | Emmen 25%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 57%, Emmen 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Emmen's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Den Bosch winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.