Den Bosch 1-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and De Graafschap meet at De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Den Bosch (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's home record at De Vliert: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Vliert. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Den Bosch are significantly better at De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Den Bosch, 4 for De Graafschap and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 48% versus De Graafschap 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 58% | De Graafschap 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.80 xG and De Graafschap 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.137 / defence 1.110 | De Graafschap attack 0.970 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.379. Data: 51 Den Bosch games / 50 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 45% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 32%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 3.12. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 40% | De Graafschap 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 31 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 45% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Den Bosch 1.80 / De Graafschap 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.137 / def 1.110 | De Graafschap attack 0.970 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.49
De Graafschap xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs De Graafschap kick off?
Den Bosch vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 October 2025 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Den Bosch 1 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap part of?
Den Bosch vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 45% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Den Bosch and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
Record (8 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 4W.
What form are Den Bosch and De Graafschap in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.97x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
45%
2.21
23%
4.39
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.29
1.49
De Graafschap xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
5%
18.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.49 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 21W 13D 18L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 23W 13D 16L from 52 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.58 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.76 PPG from 25 outings (12W 8D 5L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 6W 8D 11L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.77 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 21W 13D 18L in their last 52 games (1.46 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 23W 13D 16L in their last 52 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or De Graafschap away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.76 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
3
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, De Graafschap have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when De Graafschap 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 44%, De Graafschap 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Den Bosch) and 56% (De Graafschap).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; De Graafschap in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 64% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Den Bosch's recent games and 56% of De Graafschap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as De Graafschap defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Den Bosch 1-2 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.80 xG and De Graafschap 1.49 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.14 / defence 1.11 against De Graafschap attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 45% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 32%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 58%, De Graafschap 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
De Graafschap's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.46 PPG, De Graafschap 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.