Den Bosch 2-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion De Vliert plays host to Den Bosch versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stadion De Vliert this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Almere City FC (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 2.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Almere City FC are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Den Bosch 1W, Almere City FC 2W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Almere City FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 47% versus Almere City FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 60% | Almere City FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 0.83 xG and Almere City FC 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.834 / defence 1.168 | Almere City FC attack 1.260 / defence 0.583. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.318. Almere City FC's defence strength of 0.583 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Almere City FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.94 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 74 Den Bosch games / 74 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 15% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 63%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 6.67 | Draw 4.76 | Almere City FC 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 50% | Almere City FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 15% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Den Bosch 0.83 / Almere City FC 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.834 / def 1.168 | Almere City FC attack 1.260 / def 0.583 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Almere City FC xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Almere City FC kick off?
Den Bosch vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Den Bosch 2 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC part of?
Den Bosch vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 15% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Den Bosch and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
Record (3 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and Almere City FC in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.83x the league average against Almere City FC's defence at 0.58x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (1.26x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
15%
6.51
21%
4.71
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.77
1.94
Almere City FC xG
6.51
15%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
14%
6.96
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
2%
45.27
28%
3.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.94 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 74 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 24W 9D 41L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Almere City FC's form line: 31W 14D 29L from 74 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.45 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.46 PPG from 37 outings (17W 3D 17L).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 17W 6D 14L from 37 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.51 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 24W 9D 41L in their last 74 games (1.09 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 31W 14D 29L in their last 74 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.46 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 5-2 on 21 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
2
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Almere City FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 49%, Almere City FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Den Bosch) and 57% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 54% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Den Bosch's matches and 57% of Almere City FC's.
Do Den Bosch and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 37, as Den Bosch and Almere City FC drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 0.83 xG and Almere City FC 1.94 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Almere City FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.58, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 15% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 63%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 60%, Almere City FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.09 PPG, Almere City FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.