Den Bosch 2-3 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Vliert plays host to Den Bosch versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Round of 16. Kick-off: Wednesday 29 April 2026 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at De Vliert this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almere City FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Den Bosch, 1.60 for Almere City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Almere City FC in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Den Bosch 3W, Almere City FC 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 62% versus Almere City FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 61% | Almere City FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.88 xG and Almere City FC 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.923 / defence 0.994 | Almere City FC attack 1.159 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.422. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 76 Den Bosch games / 38 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 44% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | Almere City FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 70% | Almere City FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Round of 16 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Apr 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 44% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Den Bosch 1.88 / Almere City FC 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.923 / def 0.994 | Almere City FC attack 1.159 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Almere City FC xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Almere City FC kick off?
Den Bosch vs Almere City FC kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 29 April 2026 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Den Bosch 2 - 3 Almere City FC.
Where is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC part of?
Den Bosch vs Almere City FC is a Round of 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 44% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Den Bosch and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
Record (6 meetings): Den Bosch 3W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and Almere City FC in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.92x the league average against Almere City FC's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (1.16x) against Den Bosch's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 76/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
44%
2.28
22%
4.53
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.51
1.64
Almere City FC xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.73
5%
19.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.64 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 25W 19D 28L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Almere City FC's form line: 22W 14D 36L from 72 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.11 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.58 PPG from 36 outings (15W 12D 9L).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 10W 6D 20L from 36 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.40 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Almere City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 25W 19D 28L in their last 72 games (1.31 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 22W 14D 36L in their last 72 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Almere City FC away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.58 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 5-2 on 21 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
2
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Almere City FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 58%, Almere City FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Den Bosch) and 61% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Almere City FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Den Bosch's games and 56% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Den Bosch's matches and 61% of Almere City FC's.
Do Den Bosch and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almere City FC defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Den Bosch 2-3 at De Vliert, Round of 16, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.88 xG and Almere City FC 1.64 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Almere City FC outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Almere City FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.24, drawn from 76/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 44% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 34%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 61%, Almere City FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.31 PPG, Almere City FC 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.