Den Bosch 0-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 25 as Den Bosch welcome ADO Den Haag to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 5W 0D 5L at Stadion De Vliert — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Den Bosch are significantly better at Stadion De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. ADO Den Haag's 2.50 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Den Bosch's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 1 for ADO Den Haag and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2021, ended 2–3 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Den Bosch trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
ADO Den Haag trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 46% versus ADO Den Haag 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 58% | ADO Den Haag 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.18 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.710 / defence 1.387 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.053 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.441. Den Bosch's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. ADO Den Haag bring a strong defensive rating of 1.459 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Den Bosch games / 24 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 21% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 59%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | ADO Den Haag 1.69. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.18 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Den Bosch 30% | ADO Den Haag 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 21% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Den Bosch 1.18 / ADO Den Haag 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.710 / def 1.387 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.053 / def 1.459 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
2.10
ADO Den Haag xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Den Bosch 0 - 1 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 21% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag?
Record (1 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | ADO Den Haag 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.71x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 2.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
21%
4.84
21%
4.84
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.28
2.10
ADO Den Haag xG
4.84
21%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
12%
8.21
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
3%
39.71
18%
5.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Den Bosch and 2.10 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 8W 2D 14L from 24 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag, meanwhile, have gone 16W 3D 5L across 24 games — 2.12 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 6W 0D 6L from 12 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Den Bosch are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
ADO Den Haag's away record stands at 7W 2D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 2.21 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 8W 2D 14L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 16W 3D 5L in their last 24 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.50 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2024, when ADO Den Haag won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
7
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, ADO Den Haag have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-3 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 33%, ADO Den Haag 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Den Bosch) and 67% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 42% of games; ADO Den Haag in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 50% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Den Bosch's matches and 67% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Den Bosch and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ADO Den Haag edge out Den Bosch 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Den Bosch 0-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.18 xG and ADO Den Haag 2.10 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Den Bosch fell 1.2 short of their projected output. ADO Den Haag landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.71 / defence 1.39 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.05 / defence 1.46, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 21% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 59%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 58%, ADO Den Haag 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.