De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours VVV Venlo (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as De Graafschap face VVV Venlo.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 33 as De Graafschap welcome VVV Venlo to De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at De Vijverberg this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, VVV Venlo have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour VVV Venlo — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, VVV Venlo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
VVV Venlo have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against De Graafschap's 3 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with VVV Venlo winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. VVV Venlo have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
VVV Venlo in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 76% and VVV Venlo 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 69% | VVV Venlo 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.50 xG and VVV Venlo 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / defence 1.397 | VVV Venlo attack 0.921 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 42 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 26% | Draw 20% | VVV Venlo 53%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.85 | Draw 5.00 | VVV Venlo 1.89. VVV Venlo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 2.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VVV Venlo are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | VVV Venlo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 9 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 26% | Draw 20% | VVV Venlo 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG De Graafschap 1.50 / VVV Venlo 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / def 1.397 | VVV Venlo attack 0.921 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.19
VVV Venlo xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo kick off?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 9 April 2027 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo part of?
De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 26% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 53% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both De Graafschap and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 6W.
What form are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 2.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
26%
3.81
20%
4.88
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.69
2.19
VVV Venlo xG
3.81
26%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
11%
8.90
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
3%
33.90
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.19 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 17W 11D 14L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VVV Venlo's form line: 16W 6D 20L from 42 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.48 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (9W 4D 7L).
On the road, VVV Venlo have gone 6W 4D 10L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.45 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
VVV Venlo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 14L in their last 42 games (1.48 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 16W 6D 20L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or VVV Venlo away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.55 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
1
Draws
6
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, VVV Venlo have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when VVV Venlo 2-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 80%, VVV Venlo at 55%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for De Graafschap and 60% for VVV Venlo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of De Graafschap's games and 55% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of De Graafschap's matches and 60% of VVV Venlo's.
Do De Graafschap and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.