De Graafschap 5-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Telstar meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadion De Vijverberg this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Telstar (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Telstar away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.70 for Telstar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for De Graafschap, 1 for Telstar and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 55% versus Telstar 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 61% | Telstar 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.73 xG and Telstar 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.993 / defence 0.930 | Telstar attack 0.736 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.341. Data: 71 De Graafschap games / 71 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 56% | Draw 25% | Telstar 19%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Telstar 5.26. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: De Graafschap 50% | Telstar 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 56% | Draw 25% | Telstar 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG De Graafschap 1.73 / Telstar 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.993 / def 0.930 | Telstar attack 0.736 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Telstar xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Telstar kick off?
De Graafschap vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Telstar?
De Graafschap 5 - 1 Telstar.
Where is De Graafschap vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Telstar part of?
De Graafschap vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 56% chance of winning, Telstar a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both De Graafschap and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Telstar?
Record (5 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 1 | Telstar 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Telstar in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Telstar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.99) and Telstar's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.74x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
56%
1.80
25%
3.92
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.64
0.92
Telstar xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
3%
29.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.92 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 32W 11D 28L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Telstar's form line: 23W 17D 31L from 71 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.21 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.77 PPG from 35 outings (19W 5D 11L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 8W 8D 19L from 35 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.11 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Telstar in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 32W 11D 28L in their last 71 games (1.51 PPG), while Telstar have gone 23W 17D 31L in their last 71 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Telstar away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.77 PPG; Telstar away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 5-1 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when De Graafschap 2-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Telstar?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 46%, Telstar 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (De Graafschap) and 43% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 26% of games; Telstar in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 43% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of De Graafschap's recent games and 43% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Telstar tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Telstar in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Telstar 5-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.73 xG and Telstar 0.92 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against Telstar attack 0.74 / defence 1.08, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 56% | Draw 25% | Telstar 19%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 61%, Telstar 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.51 PPG, Telstar 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.