De Graafschap vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Roda at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 April 2027 at 14:45 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap at De Vijverberg this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Roda — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 3, Roda 5, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 2–3 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Roda in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 74% and Roda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 70% | Roda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.19 xG and Roda 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.894 / defence 1.145 | Roda attack 0.629 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Roda's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 De Graafschap games / 48 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 29% | Roda 32%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Roda 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Roda (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: De Graafschap 80% | Roda 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 29% | Roda 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG De Graafschap 1.19 / Roda 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.894 / def 1.145 | Roda attack 0.629 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Roda xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Roda kick off?
De Graafschap vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 14:45 on Sunday 4 April 2027 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Roda part of?
De Graafschap vs Roda is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 39% chance of winning, Roda a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both De Graafschap and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Roda?
Record (10 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 2 | Roda 5W.
What form are De Graafschap and Roda in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.48
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.24
1.05
Roda xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.05 for Roda, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 50 games, going 21W 12D 17L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.46 PPG from 50 outings (18W 19D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.50 PPG, Roda on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 12W 4D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.68 points per game from 25 outings (11W 9D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.42 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Roda in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Roda in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 21W 12D 17L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Roda have gone 18W 19D 13L in their last 50 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.60 PPG; Roda away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Roda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
2
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Roda have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 76%, Roda at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for De Graafschap and 56% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of De Graafschap's games and 64% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of De Graafschap's matches and 56% of Roda's.
Do De Graafschap and Roda tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Roda in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.