De Graafschap 2-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Jong AZ travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 September 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 0W 6D 4L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Jong AZ are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 0, Jong AZ 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 59% versus Jong AZ 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 54% | Jong AZ 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.04 xG and Jong AZ 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.715 / defence 1.043 | Jong AZ attack 0.972 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.373. De Graafschap's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 De Graafschap games / 46 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 27% | Draw 29% | Jong AZ 44%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Jong AZ 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: De Graafschap 90% | Jong AZ 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 27% | Draw 29% | Jong AZ 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG De Graafschap 1.04 / Jong AZ 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.715 / def 1.043 | Jong AZ attack 0.972 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Jong AZ xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 September 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
De Graafschap 2 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 27% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
Record (2 meetings): De Graafschap 0W | Draws 1 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong AZ in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.71x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
27%
3.65
29%
3.50
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.44
1.39
Jong AZ xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
7%
14.69
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.39 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 14D 17L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.20 PPG from 46 outings (16W 7D 23L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.28 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 4W 11D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (6W 4D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.20 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 15W 14D 17L in their last 46 games (1.28 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 16W 7D 23L in their last 46 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong AZ away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.00 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.96 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
De Graafschap have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2026, when De Graafschap won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 6, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when De Graafschap 5-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 65%, Jong AZ 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (De Graafschap) and 52% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 44% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of De Graafschap's recent games and 52% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Jong AZ tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong AZ 2-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.04 xG and Jong AZ 1.39 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.71 / defence 1.04 against Jong AZ attack 0.97 / defence 0.87, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 27% | Draw 29% | Jong AZ 44%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 54%, Jong AZ 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jong AZ's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.28 PPG, Jong AZ 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.