De Graafschap 5-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Jong AZ travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026, 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 1D 4L at De Vijverberg — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.80 PPG, Jong AZ 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
De Graafschap hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Jong AZ, with 2 draws in between.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with De Graafschap winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 65% and Jong AZ 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 62% | Jong AZ 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.92 xG and Jong AZ 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.107 / defence 1.097 | Jong AZ attack 1.311 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.528. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — the away xG of 2.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 72 De Graafschap games / 72 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 35% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 45%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.86 | Draw 5.00 | Jong AZ 2.22. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 2.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 35% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 76% | xG De Graafschap 1.92 / Jong AZ 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.107 / def 1.097 | Jong AZ attack 1.311 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Jong AZ xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kicked off at 15:45 on Monday 6 April 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
De Graafschap 5 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 35% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 45% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
Record (8 meetings): De Graafschap 5W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong AZ in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.11x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 2.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
35%
2.90
20%
4.95
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
4.11
2.20
Jong AZ xG
2.90
35%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.13
Clean Sheet
11%
9.01
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
4%
26.10
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.20 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 72 games, going 34W 17D 21L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.24 PPG from 72 outings (25W 14D 33L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 21W 6D 9L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.50 points per game from 36 outings (16W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.78 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 67%.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 34W 17D 21L in their last 72 games (1.65 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 25W 14D 33L in their last 72 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong AZ away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.92 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2026, when De Graafschap won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 6, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when De Graafschap 2-5 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 64%, Jong AZ at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for De Graafschap and 69% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of De Graafschap's games and 67% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of De Graafschap's matches and 69% of Jong AZ's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong AZ tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong AZ 5-0 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.92 xG and Jong AZ 2.20 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.11 / defence 1.10 against Jong AZ attack 1.31 / defence 1.11, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 35% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 45%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual De Graafschap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 62%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.