De Graafschap 1-2 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs FC OSS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and FC OSS meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC OSS have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, FC OSS have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC OSS in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: De Graafschap 1W, FC OSS 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2021, ended 3–0 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 47% versus FC OSS 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 56% | FC OSS 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.10 xG and FC OSS 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.657 / defence 1.094 | FC OSS attack 0.753 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.431. De Graafschap's attack strength of 0.657 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC OSS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 De Graafschap games / 34 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 33% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 37%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | FC OSS 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC OSS at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC OSS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: De Graafschap 60% | FC OSS 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 33% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG De Graafschap 1.10 / FC OSS 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.657 / def 1.094 | FC OSS attack 0.753 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC OSS xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC OSS kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
De Graafschap 1 - 2 FC OSS.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC OSS part of?
De Graafschap vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 33% chance of winning, FC OSS a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both De Graafschap and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
Record (1 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC OSS in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.66) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.75x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
33%
2.99
29%
3.43
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.28
1.18
FC OSS xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.18 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap come into this having played 34 games, going 14W 9D 11L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 1.12 PPG from 34 outings (10W 8D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.12 for FC OSS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
De Graafschap's home form reads 4W 7D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (4W 3D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.29 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS in 65%.
Defensively: De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC OSS in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 14W 9D 11L in their last 34 games (1.50 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC OSS away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.12 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.88 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC OSS in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 4-0 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
De Graafschap
2
Draws
1
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 7, FC OSS have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when FC OSS 2-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC OSS?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 47%, FC OSS 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (De Graafschap) and 59% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 35% of games; FC OSS in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 59% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of De Graafschap's recent games and 59% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and FC OSS tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC OSS edge out De Graafschap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat De Graafschap 1-2 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.10 xG and FC OSS 1.18 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC OSS outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.66 / defence 1.09 against FC OSS attack 0.75 / defence 1.32, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 33% | Draw 29% | FC OSS 37%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 56%, FC OSS 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
FC OSS's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.50 PPG, FC OSS 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.