De Graafschap 2-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 5 as De Graafschap welcome FC Eindhoven to Stadion De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadion De Vijverberg this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (De Graafschap) versus 1.20 (FC Eindhoven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Eindhoven in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for De Graafschap, 2 for FC Eindhoven and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 64% versus FC Eindhoven 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 69% | FC Eindhoven 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.68 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.265 / defence 1.199 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.051 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.337. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 42 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 36% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 36%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | FC Eindhoven 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | FC Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 6 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 36% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 69% | xG De Graafschap 1.68 / FC Eindhoven 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.265 / def 1.199 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.051 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.69
FC Eindhoven xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 September 2024 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap 2 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven part of?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 36% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
Record (6 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
36%
2.78
28%
3.55
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.37
1.69
FC Eindhoven xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
7%
15.03
7%
14.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.69 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 20W 7D 15L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 11W 17D 14L from 42 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Eindhoven.
Venue Form
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.90 PPG from 21 outings (12W 4D 5L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 6W 9D 6L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.21 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 20W 7D 15L in their last 42 games (1.60 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 11W 17D 14L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or FC Eindhoven away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.90 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
2
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 62%, FC Eindhoven 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (De Graafschap) and 52% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of De Graafschap's games and 57% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of De Graafschap's matches and 52% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC Eindhoven 2-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.68 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.69 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Eindhoven landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.26 / defence 1.20 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 36% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 36%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 69%, FC Eindhoven 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.