De Graafschap vs Emmen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 49%, yet in-form Emmen provide a compelling counter-argument — this De Graafschap vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 26 as De Graafschap welcome Emmen to De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Emmen — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Emmen are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 5 for Emmen and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Emmen in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 76% and Emmen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 71% | Emmen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.71 xG and Emmen 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.997 / defence 1.343 | Emmen attack 1.060 / defence 1.393. League average goals — home 1.951 / away 1.583. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.393 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 De Graafschap games / 45 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 49% | Draw 18% | Emmen 33%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.04 | Draw 5.56 | Emmen 3.03. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (18%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS probability 84% | Total xG 4.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 84% reflects that both xG figures (2.71 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Emmen (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 87% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 84% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 80% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 49% | Draw 18% | Emmen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 87% | BTTS 84% | xG De Graafschap 2.71 / Emmen 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.997 / def 1.343 | Emmen attack 1.060 / def 1.393 | league avg home 1.951 / away 1.583 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.71
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Emmen xG
84%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
73%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Emmen kick off?
De Graafschap vs Emmen is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Emmen part of?
De Graafschap vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 49% chance of winning, Emmen a 33% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 84% probability that both De Graafschap and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Emmen?
Record (9 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 1 | Emmen 5W.
What form are De Graafschap and Emmen in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Emmen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.00x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 6.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-2 (5.9%), 2-1 (5.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 18% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
49%
2.05
18%
5.53
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
6.5%
Draw
Most likely
3 – 2
5.9%
Home win
2 – 1
5.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.71
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
4.96
2.25
Emmen xG
2.05
49%
Home win
5.53
18%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
73%
Over 3.5
1.37
27%
Under 3.5
3.70
55%
Over 4.5
1.82
45%
Under 4.5
2.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
84%
BTTS Yes
1.20
16%
BTTS No
6.07
Clean Sheet
11%
9.52
7%
15.00
Win to Nil
5%
19.49
2%
45.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.5%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.71 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.25 for Emmen, a combined total of 4.96.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 18W 11D 16L from 45 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 16W 9D 20L across 45 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.44 PPG, Emmen on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 9W 4D 9L from 22 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 5W 4D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Emmen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.67 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Emmen in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Emmen in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 18W 11D 16L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while Emmen have gone 16W 9D 20L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Emmen away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.41 PPG; Emmen away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Emmen runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2025, when De Graafschap won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Emmen?
From 9 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Emmen 1-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 77%, Emmen at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for De Graafschap and 68% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of De Graafschap's games and 59% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of De Graafschap's matches and 68% of Emmen's.
Do De Graafschap and Emmen tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Emmen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.