Cambuur 0-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Roda make the trip to Kooi Stadion to face Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Monday 16 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur at Kooi Stadion this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Roda (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Cambuur against 0.90 for Roda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cambuur have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Roda in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cambuur lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 70% and Roda 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 65% | Roda 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.34 xG and Roda 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.771 / defence 0.999 | Roda attack 1.137 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.340. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Cambuur games / 43 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 31% | Draw 30% | Roda 39%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Roda 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | Roda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 16 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 31% | Draw 30% | Roda 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Cambuur 1.34 / Roda 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.771 / def 0.999 | Roda attack 1.137 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Roda (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Roda xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Roda kick off?
Cambuur vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 16 September 2024 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Roda?
Cambuur 0 - 0 Roda.
Where is Cambuur vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Roda part of?
Cambuur vs Roda is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 31% chance of winning, Roda a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cambuur and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Roda?
Record (2 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 1 | Roda 1W.
What form are Cambuur and Roda in?
Cambuur (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Roda (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cambuur's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.14x) against Cambuur's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
31%
3.21
30%
3.36
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.87
1.52
Roda xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
7%
14.70
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.52 for Roda, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur's recent record stands at 14W 8D 21L from 43 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 9L across 43 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambuur heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 6W 6D 9L from 21 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 7W 9D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.60 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Roda in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 14W 8D 21L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while Roda have gone 20W 14D 9L in their last 43 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.14 PPG; Roda away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cambuur
4
Draws
1
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Roda?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, Roda have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Cambuur, 67% for Roda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Cambuur) and 43% (Roda).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Cambuur's games and 67% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Cambuur's recent games and 43% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambuur and Roda tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Roda in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cambuur's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur and Roda finished level at 0-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.34 xG and Roda 1.52 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Roda landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.77 / defence 1.00 against Roda attack 1.14 / defence 1.17, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 31% | Draw 30% | Roda 39%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 65%, Roda 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.