Cambuur 1-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 35 as Cambuur welcome Dordrecht to Kooi Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Kooi Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dordrecht in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Cambuur have won 1, Dordrecht 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Dordrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cambuur in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 53% versus Dordrecht 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 51% | Dordrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.93 xG and Dordrecht 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.198 / defence 0.885 | Dordrecht attack 0.838 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.528. Data: 72 Cambuur games / 72 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 56% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 22%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Dordrecht 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Dordrecht lead the H2H ledger, but Cambuur carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | Dordrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 56% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Cambuur 1.93 / Dordrecht 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.198 / def 0.885 | Dordrecht attack 0.838 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Dordrecht xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Dordrecht kick off?
Cambuur vs Dordrecht kicked off at 15:45 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Dordrecht?
Cambuur 1 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Cambuur vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Dordrecht part of?
Cambuur vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 56% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cambuur and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Dordrecht?
Record (5 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 3W.
What form are Cambuur and Dordrecht in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.20) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.54
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.07
1.13
Dordrecht xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
14%
6.92
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
3%
31.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.13 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur come into this having played 74 games, going 44W 13D 17L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.54 PPG from 74 outings (32W 18D 24L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cambuur's home form reads 23W 7D 7L across 37 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.24 points per game from 37 outings (13W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.57 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 44W 13D 17L in their last 74 games (1.96 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 32W 18D 24L in their last 74 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Dordrecht away?
Cambuur's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.05 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and Dordrecht runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2023, when Dordrecht won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cambuur
2
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Dordrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, Dordrecht have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 57%, Dordrecht 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Cambuur) and 57% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Dordrecht in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cambuur's recent matches and 51% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Cambuur's recent games and 57% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambuur and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 35, as Cambuur and Dordrecht drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.93 xG and Dordrecht 1.13 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cambuur fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.20 / defence 0.89 against Dordrecht attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 56% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 22%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 51%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Dordrecht's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.