Almere City FC vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Roda travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almere City FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Almere City FC 1.70 PPG, Roda 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Almere City FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Roda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Almere City FC, 3 for Roda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Roda in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 68% and Roda 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 73% | Roda 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.52 xG and Roda 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.146 / defence 0.909 | Roda attack 0.844 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Roda's defence strength of 0.751 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Almere City FC games / 42 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 42% | Draw 25% | Roda 33%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almere City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 60% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 42% | Draw 25% | Roda 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Almere City FC 1.52 / Roda 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.146 / def 0.909 | Roda attack 0.844 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Roda xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Roda kick off?
Almere City FC vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Roda part of?
Almere City FC vs Roda is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 42% chance of winning, Roda a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Almere City FC and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Roda?
Record (6 meetings): Almere City FC 3W | Draws 0 | Roda 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and Roda in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Almere City FC's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
42%
2.36
25%
4.00
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.30
Roda xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
7%
14.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.30 for Roda, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almere City FC come into this having played 44 games, going 22W 6D 16L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.45 PPG from 44 outings (16W 16D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 1.64 PPG, Roda on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Almere City FC's home form reads 12W 3D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.76 points per game from 21 outings (10W 7D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Almere City FC are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.50 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Roda in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Roda in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 22W 6D 16L in their last 44 games (1.64 PPG), while Roda have gone 16W 16D 12L in their last 44 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Roda away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.86 PPG; Roda away: 1.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Roda have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Roda won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Almere City FC
0
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Roda?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 3, Roda have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Almere City FC 1-2 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 57%, Roda 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Almere City FC and 62% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Almere City FC's games and 67% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Almere City FC's matches and 62% of Roda's.
Do Almere City FC and Roda tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Roda in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.