Almere City FC 1-2 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almere City FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yanmar Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Yanmar Stadion this season.
NAC Breda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Almere City FC, 2.20 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Almere City FC lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 59% versus NAC Breda 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 68% | NAC Breda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.55 xG and NAC Breda 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.931 / defence 0.964 | NAC Breda attack 0.800 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.442. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Almere City FC games / 34 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 47% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 27%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | NAC Breda 3.70. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Almere City FC 10% | NAC Breda 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 47% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Almere City FC 1.55 / NAC Breda 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.931 / def 0.964 | NAC Breda attack 0.800 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
NAC Breda xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs NAC Breda kick off?
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Almere City FC 1 - 2 NAC Breda.
Where is Almere City FC vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs NAC Breda part of?
Almere City FC vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 47% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Almere City FC and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and NAC Breda?
Record (1 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are Almere City FC and NAC Breda in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.93) and NAC Breda's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.80x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.90
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.66
1.11
NAC Breda xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
6%
17.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.11 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 10W 8D 16L from 34 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 10L across 34 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours NAC Breda by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 5W 4D 8L from 17 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 5W 3D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.53 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 games (1.12 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 14W 10D 10L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or NAC Breda away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.12 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, NAC Breda have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Almere City FC 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 41%, NAC Breda 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Almere City FC) and 53% (NAC Breda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 29% of games; NAC Breda in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 41% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Almere City FC's matches and 53% of NAC Breda's.
Do Almere City FC and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NAC Breda defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Almere City FC 1-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.55 xG and NAC Breda 1.11 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. NAC Breda outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against NAC Breda attack 0.80 / defence 1.31, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 47% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 27%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 68%, NAC Breda 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.