Almere City FC vs FC OSS – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Almere City FC (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Almere City FC face FC OSS.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Almere City FC and FC OSS meet at Yanmar Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 7W 0D 3L at Yanmar Stadion — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC OSS (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC OSS have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Almere City FC's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of FC OSS's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Almere City FC are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Almere City FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Almere City FC and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
FC OSS half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 63% and FC OSS 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 71% | FC OSS 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.57 xG and FC OSS 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.871 / defence 0.640 | FC OSS attack 0.688 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.459. Almere City FC's defence rating of 0.640 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Almere City FC games / 49 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 60% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 15%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | FC OSS 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 40% | FC OSS 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 60% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 38% | xG Almere City FC 1.57 / FC OSS 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.871 / def 0.640 | FC OSS attack 0.688 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.64
FC OSS xG
38%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs FC OSS kick off?
Almere City FC vs FC OSS is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 April 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs FC OSS part of?
Almere City FC vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 60% chance of winning, FC OSS a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Almere City FC and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC OSS?
Record (6 meetings): Almere City FC 6W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are Almere City FC and FC OSS in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Almere City FC's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.69x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
60%
1.67
25%
3.98
15%
6.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.21
0.64
FC OSS xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
6.62
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.67
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
31%
3.18
3%
31.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 11.1 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Almere City FC and 0.64 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 26W 6D 17L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS's form line: 15W 11D 23L from 49 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Almere City FC are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 24 outings (15W 3D 6L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 5W 8D 11L from 24 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almere City FC are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.43 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; FC OSS in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 26W 6D 17L in their last 49 games (1.71 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or FC OSS away?
Almere City FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 2.00 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Almere City FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 0-5 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Almere City FC
0
Draws
0
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and FC OSS?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 6, FC OSS have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Almere City FC 3-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and FC OSS?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, FC OSS 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Almere City FC) and 46% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC OSS in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play FC OSS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Almere City FC's games and 62% of FC OSS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Almere City FC's matches and 46% of FC OSS's.
Do Almere City FC and FC OSS tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.