Almere City FC 2-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Almere City FC. A 0.60 PPG lead over Dordrecht (1.70 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Almere City FC 0W, Dordrecht 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 56% and Dordrecht 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 65% | Dordrecht 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.69 xG and Dordrecht 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.036 / defence 1.012 | Dordrecht attack 0.894 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.357. Data: 52 Almere City FC games / 52 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 48% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 28%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Dordrecht 3.57. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 50% | Dordrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 48% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Almere City FC 1.69 / Dordrecht 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.036 / def 1.012 | Dordrecht attack 0.894 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Dordrecht xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Dordrecht kick off?
Almere City FC vs Dordrecht kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Almere City FC 2 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Almere City FC vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Dordrecht part of?
Almere City FC vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 48% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Almere City FC and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Dordrecht?
Record (2 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 2 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Almere City FC and Dordrecht in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Almere City FC's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.89x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.17
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.92
1.23
Dordrecht xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
5%
19.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.23 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 18W 10D 24L from 52 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 26L across 52 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.04 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 9W 5D 12L from 26 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 5W 6D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.37 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 65%.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 18W 10D 24L in their last 52 games (1.23 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 14W 12D 26L in their last 52 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Dordrecht away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.23 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
0
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Dordrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Dordrecht have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Almere City FC 4-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Dordrecht?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 46%, Dordrecht 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Almere City FC and 77% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Almere City FC have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Almere City FC's games and 73% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Almere City FC's matches and 77% of Dordrecht's.
Do Almere City FC and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almere City FC edge out Dordrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Dordrecht 2-1 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.69 xG and Dordrecht 1.23 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Dordrecht attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 48% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 28%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 65%, Dordrecht 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 1.23 PPG, Dordrecht 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.