Almere City FC 2-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Yanmar Stadion to face Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 24 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Almere City FC (all games): 2W 2D 3L across 7 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.14 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.86 goals per game, with 1.86 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 1W 1D 1L this season (3 games, 1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 2D 4L from 7 games (0.71 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.14 PPG for Almere City FC against 0.71 for Dordrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Dordrecht in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 86% and Dordrecht 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 71% | Dordrecht 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.93 xG and Dordrecht 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.089 / defence 1.279 | Dordrecht attack 0.717 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.442. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Almere City FC games / 7 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 52% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 26%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Dordrecht 3.85. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 67% | Dordrecht 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 52% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Almere City FC 1.93 / Dordrecht 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.089 / def 1.279 | Dordrecht attack 0.717 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Dordrecht xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Dordrecht kick off?
Almere City FC vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Almere City FC 2 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is Almere City FC vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Dordrecht part of?
Almere City FC vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 52% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Almere City FC and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Dordrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and Dordrecht in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.86 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.71 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Almere City FC's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.72x) against Almere City FC's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
52%
1.94
22%
4.51
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.25
1.32
Dordrecht xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
4%
26.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.32 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 4L across 7 games — 0.71 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dordrecht heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 0.86 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Dordrecht away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
2
Draws
0
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Dordrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Dordrecht have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Almere City FC 4-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Dordrecht?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Almere City FC, 67% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Almere City FC and 100% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dordrecht in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Almere City FC's games and 67% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Almere City FC's matches and 100% of Dordrecht's.
Do Almere City FC and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as Almere City FC and Dordrecht drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.93 xG and Dordrecht 1.32 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.28 against Dordrecht attack 0.72 / defence 1.33, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 52% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 26%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 71%, Dordrecht 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.