ADO Den Haag 5-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Waalwijk travel to WerkTalent Stadion to take on ADO Den Haag. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 April 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ADO Den Haag stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
ADO Den Haag's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at WerkTalent Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at WerkTalent Stadion. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at WerkTalent Stadion this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Waalwijk have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Waalwijk's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
ADO Den Haag are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, ADO Den Haag have won 1, Waalwijk 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
ADO Den Haag trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Waalwijk trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 56% and Waalwijk 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 64% | Waalwijk 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.92 xG and Waalwijk 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.228 / defence 0.801 | Waalwijk attack 1.179 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.483. Data: 74 ADO Den Haag games / 36 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 50% | Draw 22% | Waalwijk 28%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Waalwijk 3.57. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 50% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: WerkTalent Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 50% | Draw 22% | Waalwijk 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.92 / Waalwijk 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.228 / def 0.801 | Waalwijk attack 1.179 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Waalwijk xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Waalwijk kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 April 2026 at WerkTalent Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Waalwijk?
ADO Den Haag 5 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at WerkTalent Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Waalwijk part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 50% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Waalwijk?
Record (1 meetings): ADO Den Haag 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Waalwijk in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
ADO Den Haag's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
50%
2.01
22%
4.51
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.33
1.40
Waalwijk xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
15%
6.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
4%
24.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.40 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ADO Den Haag come into this having played 70 games, going 46W 9D 15L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 1.14 PPG from 70 outings (21W 17D 32L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
ADO Den Haag's home form reads 25W 3D 7L across 35 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.97 points per game from 35 outings (8W 10D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.57 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 67%.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 46W 9D 15L in their last 70 games (2.10 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 21W 17D 32L in their last 70 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Waalwijk away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.23 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.97 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
ADO Den Haag
0
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Waalwijk?
From 2 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 2, Waalwijk have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when ADO Den Haag 5-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Waalwijk?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 57%, Waalwijk 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for ADO Den Haag and 69% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 49% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of ADO Den Haag's games and 71% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 69% of Waalwijk's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Waalwijk tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat Waalwijk 5-1 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.92 xG and Waalwijk 1.40 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.23 / defence 0.80 against Waalwijk attack 1.18 / defence 0.98, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 50% | Draw 22% | Waalwijk 28%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 64%, Waalwijk 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.