ADO Den Haag 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cars Jeans Stadion plays host to ADO Den Haag versus FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Friday 18 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
ADO Den Haag have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 7W 1D 2L at Cars Jeans Stadion — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — ADO Den Haag are significantly better at Cars Jeans Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Volendam's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for ADO Den Haag, 1.80 for FC Volendam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — ADO Den Haag lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2021, ended 3–1 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
ADO Den Haag half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 54% versus FC Volendam 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 57% | FC Volendam 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.66 xG and FC Volendam 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.198 / defence 1.062 | FC Volendam attack 0.832 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.463. Data: 28 ADO Den Haag games / 30 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 46% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 30%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | FC Volendam 3.33. ADO Den Haag hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ADO Den Haag as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: ADO Den Haag 50% | FC Volendam 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Cars Jeans Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 46% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.66 / FC Volendam 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.198 / def 1.062 | FC Volendam attack 0.832 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC Volendam xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam?
ADO Den Haag 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Cars Jeans Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam part of?
ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 46% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam?
Record (1 meetings): ADO Den Haag 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (1.20) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.83x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 28/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
46%
2.19
25%
4.04
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
2.95
1.29
FC Volendam xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
6%
17.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.29 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 17W 4D 7L from 28 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 2L across 28 games — 2.21 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.96 PPG for ADO Den Haag against 2.21 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, ADO Den Haag have managed 9W 1D 3L from 13 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 7W 5D 1L across 13 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.21 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 64%.
Defensively: FC Volendam in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 17W 4D 7L in their last 28 games (1.96 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 18W 8D 2L in their last 28 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or FC Volendam away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.15 PPG; FC Volendam away: 2.00 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
ADO Den Haag go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
ADO Den Haag
1
Draws
0
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 3, FC Volendam have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when FC Volendam 1-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
FC Volendam see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 54%, FC Volendam 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (ADO Den Haag) and 46% (FC Volendam).
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC Volendam in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 54% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ADO Den Haag vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of ADO Den Haag's recent games and 46% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag and FC Volendam finished level at 1-1 at Cars Jeans Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.66 xG and FC Volendam 1.29 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.20 / defence 1.06 against FC Volendam attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 28/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 46% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 30%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 57%, FC Volendam 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.96 PPG, FC Volendam 2.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.