ADO Den Haag 4-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours ADO Den Haag (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as ADO Den Haag face FC Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to WerkTalent Stadion to face ADO Den Haag in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
ADO Den Haag have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at WerkTalent Stadion, ADO Den Haag have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at WerkTalent Stadion this season.
FC Eindhoven (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward ADO Den Haag. A 1.40 PPG lead over FC Eindhoven (2.70 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Eindhoven in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours ADO Den Haag, who have won 6 of the last 9 meetings against FC Eindhoven — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with ADO Den Haag winning.
The historical record gives ADO Den Haag a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
ADO Den Haag half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 57% versus FC Eindhoven 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 65% | FC Eindhoven 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.99 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.170 / defence 0.844 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.828 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.528. Data: 72 ADO Den Haag games / 72 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 59% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 20%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | FC Eindhoven 5.00. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 60% | FC Eindhoven 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: WerkTalent Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 59% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.99 / FC Eindhoven 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.170 / def 0.844 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.828 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.07
FC Eindhoven xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 15:45 on Monday 6 April 2026 at WerkTalent Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven?
ADO Den Haag 4 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at WerkTalent Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven part of?
ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 59% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven?
Record (9 meetings): ADO Den Haag 6W | Draws 3 | FC Eindhoven 0W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
ADO Den Haag's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.83x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
59%
1.70
21%
4.67
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.06
1.07
FC Eindhoven xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
3%
36.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.07 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
ADO Den Haag's recent record stands at 46W 10D 16L from 72 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 31L across 72 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours ADO Den Haag by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Eindhoven heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, ADO Den Haag have managed 25W 3D 8L from 36 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 14W 6D 16L across 36 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.01 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.49 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 46W 10D 16L in their last 72 games (2.06 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 27W 14D 31L in their last 72 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or FC Eindhoven away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.17 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.33 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ADO Den Haag won 0-4 on 1 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
ADO Den Haag
3
Draws
0
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 7, FC Eindhoven have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when ADO Den Haag 4-0 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 58%, FC Eindhoven 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for ADO Den Haag and 58% for FC Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of ADO Den Haag's recent matches and 50% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 58% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do ADO Den Haag and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat FC Eindhoven 4-0 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.99 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.07 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. ADO Den Haag beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.17 / defence 0.84 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 59% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 20%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 65%, FC Eindhoven 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.