Vicenza Virtus vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vicenza Virtus vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Romeo Menti plays host to Vicenza Virtus versus Padova in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 13 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 3L from 8 games (1.12 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vicenza Virtus have posted 1W 1D 1L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Padova (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Padova's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.12 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Padova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 62% and Padova 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 75% | Padova 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.27 xG and Padova 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.845 / defence 1.298 | Padova attack 0.914 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Data: 7 Vicenza Virtus games / 45 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 31% | Draw 28% | Padova 41%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Padova 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Padova if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 67% | Padova 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 31% | Draw 28% | Padova 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.27 / Padova 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.845 / def 1.298 | Padova attack 0.914 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Padova (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Padova xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Padova kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Padova part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Padova is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 31% chance of winning, Padova a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Padova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Padova in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Padova (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vicenza Virtus's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Padova's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Padova's attack (0.91x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
31%
3.25
28%
3.52
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.77
1.50
Padova xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
7%
14.54
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.50 for Padova, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 3D 3L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Padova sit at 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Vicenza Virtus against 1.25 for Padova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Vicenza Virtus's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Padova have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.25 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Padova in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Padova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Padova in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Padova have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Padova away?
Vicenza Virtus's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 1.33 PPG; Padova away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Vicenza Virtus, 67% for Padova — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Vicenza Virtus and 67% for Padova. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Padova in 33%; Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Padova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 67% of Padova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 67% of Padova's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Padova tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Padova in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.