Vicenza Virtus 1-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Vicenza Virtus take on Monza.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus host Monza at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Vicenza Virtus — All Games: 1W 0D 8L from 9 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.33 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 2.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.22 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus's home record at Stadio Paolo Mazza: 0W 0D 4L from 4 Serie B appearances (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 3W 4D 2L from 9 Serie B matches — 1.44 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's away record: 0W 3D 2L from 5 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.44 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Monza — 1.11 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.44 vs 0.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Vicenza Virtus in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Monza in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 44% versus Monza 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 56% | Monza 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 0.76 xG and Monza 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.629 / defence 1.364 | Monza attack 0.612 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.128. Vicenza Virtus's attack strength of 0.629 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Vicenza Virtus games / 9 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 26% | Draw 38% | Monza 36%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.85 | Draw 2.63 | Monza 2.78. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Vicenza Virtus's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 25% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 26% | Draw 38% | Monza 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 34% | xG Vicenza Virtus 0.76 / Monza 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.629 / def 1.364 | Monza attack 0.612 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Monza xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Monza kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Monza kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Monza?
Vicenza Virtus 1 - 1 Monza.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Monza part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Monza is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 26% chance of winning, Monza a 36% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Monza in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-0D-8L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 2.22 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Monza (all comps): 3W-4D-2L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 0.89 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vicenza Virtus's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.81
38%
2.66
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
1.71
0.94
Monza xG
3.81
26%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.90
66%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 17.1 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 0.94 for Monza, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 0.33 PPG on a 1W 0D 8L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza's form line: 3W 4D 2L from 9 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vicenza Virtus have posted 0.00 PPG from 4 outings (0W 0D 4L).
On the road, Monza have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.89 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Monza in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Monza in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 0D 8L in their last 9 games (0.33 PPG), while Monza have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.00 PPG; Monza away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Vicenza Virtus or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Monza in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
1
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Monza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Monza 4-0 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 25%, Monza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Vicenza Virtus) and 50% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 75% of games; Monza in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 50% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 50% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Monza tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Monza in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vicenza Virtus and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vicenza Virtus and Monza finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 0.76 xG and Monza 0.94 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.63 / defence 1.36 against Monza attack 0.61 / defence 1.14, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 26% | Draw 38% | Monza 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 56%, Monza 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.