Vicenza Virtus 0-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Vicenza Virtus (all games): 0W 0D 5L across 5 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cremonese are 1.80 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus in recent Serie B fixtures (1.80 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 60% versus Cremonese 20%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 60% | Cremonese 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 0.98 xG and Cremonese 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.819 / defence 1.358 | Cremonese attack 0.835 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.384. Data: 5 Vicenza Virtus games / 5 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 20% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 48%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | Cremonese 2.08. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Vicenza Virtus 60% | Cremonese 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 20% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Vicenza Virtus 0.98 / Cremonese 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.819 / def 1.358 | Cremonese attack 0.835 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Cremonese xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese?
Vicenza Virtus 0 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 20% chance of winning, Cremonese a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 0W-0D-5L in 5 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vicenza Virtus's attack at 0.82x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.83x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
20%
4.89
32%
3.13
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.55
1.57
Cremonese xG
4.89
20%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
4%
23.47
18%
5.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.57 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 5 games, going 0W 0D 5L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.80 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Cremonese in 20%.
Defensively: Cremonese in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 0W 0D 5L in their last 5 games (0.00 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Vicenza Virtus or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Cremonese in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2022, when Cremonese 0-0 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 60%, Cremonese 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Vicenza Virtus and 60% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 40%; Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 40% of games; Cremonese in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 20% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 60% of Cremonese's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Vicenza Virtus 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Vicenza Virtus 0-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 0.98 xG and Cremonese 1.57 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vicenza Virtus fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.82 / defence 1.36 against Cremonese attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 20% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 48%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 60%, Cremonese 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Vicenza Virtus managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.