Venezia 1-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Ternana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 22 as Venezia welcome Ternana to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Venezia — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's home record at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Venezia) versus 1.50 (Ternana). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 90% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Venezia have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Ternana have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Venezia winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Venezia and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Ternana in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Venezia 63% and Ternana 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 56% | Ternana 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 2.69 xG and Ternana 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.449 / defence 1.331 | Ternana attack 1.142 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.211. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.449 — their λ of 2.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.367 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Venezia games / 59 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 56% | Draw 19% | Ternana 25%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.79 | Draw 5.26 | Ternana 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.69 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 83% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 79%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 90% | Ternana 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 56% | Draw 19% | Ternana 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 83% | BTTS 79% | xG Venezia 2.69 / Ternana 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.449 / def 1.331 | Ternana attack 1.142 / def 1.367 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Venezia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.69
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Ternana xG
79%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Ternana kick off?
Venezia vs Ternana kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Ternana?
Venezia 1 - 0 Ternana.
Where is Venezia vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Ternana part of?
Venezia vs Ternana is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 56% chance of winning, Ternana a 25% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both Venezia and Ternana will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 83%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Ternana?
Record (3 meetings): Venezia 3W | Draws 0 | Ternana 0W.
What form are Venezia and Ternana in?
Venezia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Ternana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Venezia's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against Ternana's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.69. The same calculation in reverse, Ternana's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.2%. Close behind: 2-2 (6.6%), 3-1 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
56%
1.80
19%
5.22
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
3 – 1
6.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.69
Venezia xG
Total xG
4.53
1.84
Ternana xG
1.80
56%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
83%
Over 2.5
1.20
17%
Under 2.5
5.88
66%
Over 3.5
1.52
34%
Under 3.5
2.94
47%
Over 4.5
2.13
53%
Under 4.5
1.89
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.27
21%
BTTS No
4.75
Clean Sheet
16%
6.29
7%
14.67
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
2%
57.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are Venezia and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 2.69 expected goals for Venezia and 1.84 for Ternana, a combined total of 4.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Ternana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Venezia's recent record stands at 24W 15D 20L from 59 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 27L across 59 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 1.47 PPG, Ternana on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 14W 7D 8L from 29 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 5W 7D 17L across 29 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.08 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Ternana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Ternana in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 24W 15D 20L in their last 59 games (1.47 PPG), while Ternana have gone 16W 16D 27L in their last 59 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Ternana away?
Venezia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.69 PPG; Ternana away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Venezia have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Venezia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Ternana specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Venezia
0
Draws
0
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Ternana?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 4, Ternana have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Ternana last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Venezia 1-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Ternana?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Venezia at 72%, Ternana at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Venezia and 69% for Ternana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ternana in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Ternana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Venezia's games and 66% of Ternana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Ternana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Venezia's matches and 69% of Ternana's.
Do Venezia and Ternana tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Ternana in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Ternana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Ternana 1-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 2.69 xG and Ternana 1.84 xG, a combined 4.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Venezia fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Ternana landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.45 / defence 1.33 against Ternana attack 1.14 / defence 1.37, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 56% | Draw 19% | Ternana 25%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 95% and missed. Over 3.5 was 66% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 56%, Ternana 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Ternana's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.47 PPG, Ternana 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.