Venezia 3-2 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Perugia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Venezia host Perugia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Perugia have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Perugia have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Venezia are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Venezia have won 0, Perugia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2022, ended 1–2 with Perugia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Perugia in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 61% versus Perugia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 49% | Perugia 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.54 xG and Perugia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.280 / defence 1.170 | Perugia attack 0.933 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.022. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Venezia games / 74 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 45% | Draw 29% | Perugia 26%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Perugia 3.85. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 60% | Perugia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 45% | Draw 29% | Perugia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Venezia 1.54 / Perugia 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.280 / def 1.170 | Perugia attack 0.933 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Venezia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Perugia xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Perugia kick off?
Venezia vs Perugia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Perugia?
Venezia 3 - 2 Perugia.
Where is Venezia vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Perugia part of?
Venezia vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 45% chance of winning, Perugia a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Venezia and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Perugia?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 0 | Perugia 1W.
What form are Venezia and Perugia in?
Venezia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Perugia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Venezia's attack rating (1.28) and Perugia's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Perugia's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
45%
2.20
29%
3.47
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.66
1.12
Perugia xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
6%
18.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Venezia and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Venezia and 1.12 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Venezia have picked up 0.99 PPG on a 18W 19D 37L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Perugia's form line: 22W 25D 27L from 74 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 0.99 PPG, Perugia on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Venezia have posted 1.00 PPG from 37 outings (9W 10D 18L).
On the road, Perugia have gone 11W 11D 15L from 37 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.03 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Perugia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Perugia in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 18W 19D 37L in their last 74 games (0.99 PPG), while Perugia have gone 22W 25D 27L in their last 74 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Perugia away?
Perugia's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.00 PPG; Perugia away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Venezia or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Perugia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Venezia
0
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Perugia?
From 2 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Perugia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Venezia 3-2 Perugia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 68%, Perugia 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Venezia) and 38% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Perugia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Perugia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Venezia's games and 49% of Perugia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Venezia's recent games and 38% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Perugia tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Perugia in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Perugia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Perugia 3-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.54 xG and Perugia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Perugia outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.28 / defence 1.17 against Perugia attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 45% | Draw 29% | Perugia 26%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 49%, Perugia 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Perugia's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 0.99 PPG, Perugia 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.