Ternana 1-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ternana at Stadio Libero Liberati this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Sudtirol (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sudtirol's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sudtirol arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Ternana 0W, Sudtirol 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Sudtirol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ternana — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 51% versus Sudtirol 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 54% | Sudtirol 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.84 xG and Sudtirol 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.791 / defence 1.026 | Sudtirol attack 1.119 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.133. Ternana's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Ternana games / 42 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 23% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 46%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | Sudtirol 2.17. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 60% | Sudtirol 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 23% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Ternana 0.84 / Sudtirol 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.791 / def 1.026 | Sudtirol attack 1.119 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Sudtirol xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Sudtirol kick off?
Ternana vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Sudtirol?
Ternana 1 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Ternana vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Sudtirol part of?
Ternana vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 23% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ternana and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Sudtirol?
Record (2 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Ternana and Sudtirol in?
Ternana (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ternana's attack at 0.79x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (1.12x) against Ternana's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
23%
4.41
32%
3.17
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.14
1.30
Sudtirol xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
6%
16.19
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 15.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ternana and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Ternana and 1.30 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ternana come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 11D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.67 PPG from 43 outings (18W 18D 7L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Ternana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ternana's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.62 points per game from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.14 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Early Season
Sudtirol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 18W 18D 7L in their last 43 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.29 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Ternana or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ternana
2
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 0, Sudtirol have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2024, when Sudtirol 4-3 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 48%, Sudtirol 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ternana) and 24% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sudtirol in 52%; Ternana have failed to score in 29% of games; Sudtirol in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Ternana's recent matches and 29% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ternana's recent games and 24% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 6, as Ternana and Sudtirol drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.84 xG and Sudtirol 1.30 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.79 / defence 1.03 against Sudtirol attack 1.12 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 23% | Draw 32% | Sudtirol 46%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 54%, Sudtirol 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sudtirol's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.