Ternana 0-0 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ternana at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Spal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ternana host Spal at Stadio Libero Liberati in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ternana — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spal have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal away from home this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ternana are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ternana, 1 for Spal and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2022, ended 1–5 with Spal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ternana in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Spal in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 61% versus Spal 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 53% | Spal 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.53 xG and Spal 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.098 / defence 0.926 | Spal attack 0.992 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.117. Data: 49 Ternana games / 49 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 48% | Draw 27% | Spal 25%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Spal 4.00. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 40% | Spal 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 48% | Draw 27% | Spal 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Ternana 1.53 / Spal 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.098 / def 0.926 | Spal attack 0.992 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Ternana (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Spal xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Spal kick off?
Ternana vs Spal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Spal?
Ternana 0 - 0 Spal.
Where is Ternana vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Spal part of?
Ternana vs Spal is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 48% chance of winning, Spal a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ternana and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Spal?
Record (2 meetings): Ternana 1W | Draws 0 | Spal 1W.
What form are Ternana and Spal in?
Ternana (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Spal (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ternana's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Spal's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.69
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.55
1.03
Spal xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
5%
18.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ternana and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ternana and 1.03 for Spal, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ternana's recent record stands at 21W 11D 17L from 49 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spal, meanwhile, have gone 12W 20D 17L across 49 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.51 PPG, Spal on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 12W 3D 9L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spal's away record stands at 5W 11D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ternana are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.27 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Spal in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 21W 11D 17L in their last 49 games (1.51 PPG), while Spal have gone 12W 20D 17L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Spal away?
Ternana's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.62 PPG; Spal away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Ternana or Spal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Spal in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ternana and Spal runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2022, when Spal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ternana's record when hosting Spal specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ternana
2
Draws
1
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Spal?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Spal have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Spal 1-1 Ternana.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 42%, Spal 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ternana) and 38% (Spal).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Spal in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Ternana's recent matches and 50% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ternana's recent games and 38% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Spal tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Spal in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ternana's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 12, as Ternana and Spal drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.53 xG and Spal 1.03 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ternana fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Spal landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against Spal attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 48% | Draw 27% | Spal 25%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 53%, Spal 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Spal's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.51 PPG, Spal 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.