Ternana 0-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 40%, yet in-form Monza provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ternana vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Monza travel to Stadio Libero Liberati to take on Ternana. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 15 February 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Libero Liberati, Ternana have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Monza — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Monza's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Ternana's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ternana, 0 for Monza and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ternana in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Monza in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 59% versus Monza 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 41% | Monza 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.53 xG and Monza 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.138 / defence 1.323 | Monza attack 0.863 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.133. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.397 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Ternana games / 22 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 40% | Draw 31% | Monza 29%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Monza 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Monza (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 50% | Monza 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 40% | Draw 31% | Monza 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Ternana 1.53 / Monza 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.138 / def 1.323 | Monza attack 0.863 / def 1.397 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Ternana (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Monza xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Monza kick off?
Ternana vs Monza kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 15 February 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Monza?
Ternana 0 - 1 Monza.
Where is Ternana vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Monza part of?
Ternana vs Monza is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 40% chance of winning, Monza a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ternana and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Monza?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 1 | Monza 0W.
What form are Ternana and Monza in?
Ternana (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Monza (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ternana's attack rating (1.14) and Monza's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
40%
2.50
31%
3.24
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.83
1.29
Monza xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
6%
15.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ternana and 1.29 for Monza, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 7W 7D 8L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monza's form line: 10W 8D 4L from 22 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Monza are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ternana.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (5W 1D 5L).
On the road, Monza have gone 1W 6D 4L from 11 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.55 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Monza in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Monza in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 7W 7D 8L in their last 22 games (1.27 PPG), while Monza have gone 10W 8D 4L in their last 22 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Monza away?
Ternana's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.45 PPG; Monza away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Ternana or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Monza in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ternana
1
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Monza?
From 2 meetings on record, Ternana have won 0, Monza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2022, when Ternana 0-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 46%, Monza 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ternana) and 36% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Monza in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ternana's recent matches and 64% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ternana's recent games and 36% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Monza tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Monza in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Monza defy the odds to beat Ternana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Ternana 0-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.53 xG and Monza 1.29 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ternana fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.14 / defence 1.32 against Monza attack 0.86 / defence 1.40, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 40% | Draw 31% | Monza 29%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 41%, Monza 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Monza's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Monza arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Monza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.