Sudtirol 2-0 Spal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sudtirol at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Spal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 30 as Sudtirol welcome Spal to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Marco Druso this season.
Spal — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Spal's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sudtirol, 0 for Spal and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Spal trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 48% versus Spal 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 31% | Spal 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.18 xG and Spal 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.904 / defence 1.113 | Spal attack 0.780 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 0.959. Data: 29 Sudtirol games / 67 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 43% | Draw 33% | Spal 25%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Spal 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 70% | Spal 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 43% | Draw 33% | Spal 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Sudtirol 1.18 / Spal 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.904 / def 1.113 | Spal attack 0.780 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.179 / away 0.959 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Spal xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Spal kick off?
Sudtirol vs Spal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Spal?
Sudtirol 2 - 0 Spal.
Where is Sudtirol vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Spal part of?
Sudtirol vs Spal is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 43% chance of winning, Spal a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sudtirol and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Spal?
Record (1 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 1 | Spal 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Spal in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Spal (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.90x the league average against Spal's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spal's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
43%
2.34
33%
3.07
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.01
0.83
Spal xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.83 for Spal, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 12W 12D 5L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Spal's form line: 6W 10D 13L from 29 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Sudtirol are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spal.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.64 PPG from 14 outings (5W 8D 1L).
On the road, Spal have gone 2W 6D 6L from 14 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.07 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Spal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Spal in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 12W 12D 5L in their last 29 games (1.66 PPG), while Spal have gone 6W 10D 13L in their last 29 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Spal away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.64 PPG; Spal away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Spal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Spal in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
1
Draws
0
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Spal?
From 2 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Spal have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Sudtirol 2-0 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Spal?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Spal see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 71%, Spal 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sudtirol) and 36% (Spal).
On the defensive side: Spal in 36%; Spal in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Spal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 36% of Spal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sudtirol's recent games and 36% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Spal tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Spal in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Spal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Spal 2-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.18 xG and Spal 0.83 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spal landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against Spal attack 0.78 / defence 1.11, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 43% | Draw 33% | Spal 25%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 31%, Spal 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Spal's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.