Sudtirol 2-1 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggina at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Reggina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sudtirol and Reggina meet at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sudtirol have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Marco Druso, Sudtirol have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Reggina have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Reggina are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sudtirol 0W, Reggina 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 0–4 with Reggina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Reggina half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 48% versus Reggina 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 33% | Reggina 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 0.70 xG and Reggina 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.792 / defence 1.063 | Reggina attack 0.976 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.054. Sudtirol's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Reggina's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 21 Sudtirol games / 59 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 22% | Draw 34% | Reggina 44%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | Reggina 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Sudtirol's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reggina as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 60% | Reggina 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 22% | Draw 34% | Reggina 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Sudtirol 0.70 / Reggina 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.792 / def 1.063 | Reggina attack 0.976 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Reggina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Reggina xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Reggina kick off?
Sudtirol vs Reggina kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Reggina?
Sudtirol 2 - 1 Reggina.
Where is Sudtirol vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Reggina part of?
Sudtirol vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 22% chance of winning, Reggina a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Sudtirol and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Reggina?
Record (1 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 0 | Reggina 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Reggina in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Reggina (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.79x the league average against Reggina's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (0.98x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
22%
4.47
34%
2.97
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
1.79
1.09
Reggina xG
4.47
22%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
7%
13.35
22%
4.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 18.2 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.09 for Reggina, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 8W 8D 5L from 21 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggina, meanwhile, have gone 12W 3D 6L across 21 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.86 for Reggina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 3W 6D 1L from 10 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggina's away record stands at 6W 1D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.90 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.52 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Reggina in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Reggina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Reggina in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 8W 8D 5L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while Reggina have gone 12W 3D 6L in their last 21 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Reggina away?
Reggina's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.50 PPG; Reggina away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Reggina in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sudtirol have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reggina won 4-0 on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reggina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
0
Draws
1
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Reggina?
From 3 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Reggina have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Sudtirol 1-0 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Reggina?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 60%, Reggina 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Sudtirol and 20% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Reggina in 40%; Reggina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 30% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Sudtirol's recent games and 20% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Reggina tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Reggina in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Reggina 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Reggina 2-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.70 xG and Reggina 1.09 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.79 / defence 1.06 against Reggina attack 0.98 / defence 0.76, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 22% | Draw 34% | Reggina 44%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Sudtirol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 33%, Reggina 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Reggina's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.52 PPG, Reggina 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Reggina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.