Sudtirol 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 4 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sudtirol's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 6D 0L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 1L across 7 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Frosinone (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Frosinone have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 64% versus Frosinone 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 50% | Frosinone 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.22 xG and Frosinone 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.024 / defence 1.173 | Frosinone attack 1.044 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.120. Data: 14 Sudtirol games / 52 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 32% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 39%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Frosinone 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 86% | Frosinone 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 32% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Sudtirol 1.22 / Frosinone 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.024 / def 1.173 | Frosinone attack 1.044 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Frosinone xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Frosinone kick off?
Sudtirol vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 December 2022 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Sudtirol vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Frosinone part of?
Sudtirol vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 32% chance of winning, Frosinone a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sudtirol and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Frosinone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Frosinone in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Frosinone (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sudtirol's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (1.04x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
32%
3.16
29%
3.40
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.59
1.37
Frosinone xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.37 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 5W 6D 3L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone's form line: 10W 1D 3L from 14 games, 2.21 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sudtirol.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 4W 0D 3L from 7 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Frosinone's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.50 scored and 0.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Frosinone in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 5W 6D 3L in their last 14 games (1.50 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 10W 1D 3L in their last 14 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.43 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Frosinone in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sudtirol won 0-3 on 25 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
4
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Frosinone have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sudtirol 1-3 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Sudtirol, 57% for Frosinone — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sudtirol) and 57% (Frosinone). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Sudtirol's games and 57% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Sudtirol's matches and 57% of Frosinone's.
Do Sudtirol and Frosinone tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 15, as Sudtirol and Frosinone drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.22 xG and Frosinone 1.37 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.02 / defence 1.17 against Frosinone attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 32% | Draw 29% | Frosinone 39%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 50%, Frosinone 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.