Sudtirol 0-4 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sudtirol have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cremonese are 0.80 PPG clear of Sudtirol in recent Serie B fixtures (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sudtirol register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Cremonese in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sudtirol, 0 for Cremonese and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 3–0 with Sudtirol winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 52% versus Cremonese 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 50% | Cremonese 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.19 xG and Cremonese 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.952 / defence 1.263 | Cremonese attack 1.190 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.055. Data: 52 Sudtirol games / 52 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 26% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 44%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Cremonese 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 70% | Cremonese 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 26% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Sudtirol 1.19 / Cremonese 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.952 / def 1.263 | Cremonese attack 1.190 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Cremonese xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Cremonese kick off?
Sudtirol vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Cremonese?
Sudtirol 0 - 4 Cremonese.
Where is Sudtirol vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Cremonese part of?
Sudtirol vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 26% chance of winning, Cremonese a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sudtirol and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Sudtirol 2W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Cremonese in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Sudtirol vs Cremonese?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.95x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.19x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
26%
3.83
30%
3.37
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.77
1.59
Cremonese xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
5%
18.68
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.59 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 16W 12D 24L from 52 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 14L across 52 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sudtirol heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 9W 6D 11L from 26 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 12W 6D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.40 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 16W 12D 24L in their last 52 games (1.15 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 25W 13D 14L in their last 52 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.27 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Cremonese in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Cremonese have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 0-4 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
0
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Cremonese have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Cremonese 3-1 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 50%, Cremonese 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 58% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 35% of games; Cremonese in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 54% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 58% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Cremonese tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cremonese run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Sudtirol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Sudtirol 0-4 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.19 xG and Cremonese 1.59 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cremonese outscored their 1.59 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.95 / defence 1.26 against Cremonese attack 1.19 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 26% | Draw 30% | Cremonese 44%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 50%, Cremonese 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cremonese's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.