Sudtirol 1-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Carrarese at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sudtirol at 1.00 PPG versus Carrarese's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sudtirol register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Carrarese in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 1 for Carrarese and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Carrarese trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 61% versus Carrarese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 55% | Carrarese 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.38 xG and Carrarese 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.917 / defence 1.096 | Carrarese attack 1.095 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.093. Data: 49 Sudtirol games / 49 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 35% | Draw 33% | Carrarese 32%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Carrarese 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 60% | Carrarese 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 35% | Draw 33% | Carrarese 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Sudtirol 1.38 / Carrarese 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.917 / def 1.096 | Carrarese attack 1.095 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Carrarese xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Carrarese kick off?
Sudtirol vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Sudtirol vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Carrarese part of?
Sudtirol vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 35% chance of winning, Carrarese a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sudtirol and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Carrarese?
Record (2 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 1 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Carrarese in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Carrarese (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
35%
2.83
33%
3.07
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.70
1.31
Carrarese xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.31 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 14W 15D 20L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese's form line: 14W 17D 18L from 49 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.16 PPG, Carrarese on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 2W 10D 12L from 24 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.14 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 14W 15D 20L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 14W 17D 18L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Carrarese away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.29 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Carrarese in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
3
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Carrarese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Carrarese 0-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Carrarese?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sudtirol at 71%, Carrarese at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sudtirol) and 50% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Sudtirol's games and 62% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Sudtirol's recent games and 50% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Carrarese tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Carrarese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Carrarese finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.38 xG and Carrarese 1.31 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against Carrarese attack 1.09 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 35% | Draw 33% | Carrarese 32%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 55%, Carrarese 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.16 PPG, Carrarese 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.