Sudtirol 2-2 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Carrarese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Carrarese at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 16 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sudtirol at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Carrarese stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Carrarese away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Sudtirol have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Sudtirol have won 0, Carrarese 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2024, ended Sudtirol 0–2 Carrarese — a Carrarese win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Carrarese trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 55% versus Carrarese 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 59% | Carrarese 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.61 xG and Carrarese 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.023 / defence 1.162 | Carrarese attack 0.808 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.089. Carrarese's defence rating of 1.303 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sudtirol's projected output up. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 67 games and Carrarese's last 29.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 49% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 22%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.03 | Draw 3.49 | Carrarese 4.51. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 70% (last 10 home games) | Carrarese 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 49% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Sudtirol 1.61 / Carrarese 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.023 / def 1.162 | Carrarese attack 0.808 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Carrarese xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sudtirol vs Carrarese FAQs
What time does Sudtirol vs Carrarese kick off?
Sudtirol vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Sudtirol 2 - 2 Carrarese.
Where is Sudtirol vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Carrarese part of?
Sudtirol vs Carrarese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 30) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 49% chance of winning, Carrarese a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sudtirol and Carrarese will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sudtirol vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sudtirol's last 67 games and Carrarese's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.49
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.63
1.02
Carrarese xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
4%
22.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sudtirol vs Carrarese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.02 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 9W 6D 14L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Carrarese's form line: 8W 8D 13L from 29 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.14 PPG, Carrarese on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 14 home games (4W 4D 6L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 1W 4D 9L from their last 14 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.97 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Carrarese
Current Season
Sudtirol (Home) vs Carrarese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sudtirol
Current Season
Carrarese
Current Season
❓ Sudtirol vs Carrarese Form FAQs
What form are Sudtirol and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 9W 6D 14L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 8W 8D 13L in their last 29 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Carrarese away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.14 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Carrarese in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
3
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Sudtirol vs Carrarese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Carrarese?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sudtirol have won 0, Carrarese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Carrarese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Carrarese 0-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Carrarese?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sudtirol at 79%, Carrarese at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sudtirol) and 50% (Carrarese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sudtirol vs Carrarese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sudtirol and Carrarese matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Sudtirol's games and 57% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sudtirol and Carrarese matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Sudtirol's matches and 50% of Carrarese's.
Do Sudtirol and Carrarese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 64% of Carrarese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Carrarese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 30, as Sudtirol and Carrarese drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.61 xG and Carrarese 1.02 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Carrarese outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.02 / defence 1.16 against Carrarese attack 0.81 / defence 1.30, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 49% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 22%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 59%, Carrarese 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.14 PPG, Carrarese 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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