Sudtirol vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Benevento make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Sudtirol (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Marco Druso.

Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games (1.57 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.57 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sudtirol lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 43% versus Benevento 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 29% | Benevento 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.08 xG and Benevento 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.839 / defence 0.721 | Benevento attack 0.748 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Sudtirol games / 7 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 43% | Draw 36% | Benevento 21%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.33 | Draw 2.78 | Benevento 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Benevento's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 40% | Benevento 57%.

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