Sudtirol 0-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sudtirol at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Bari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Bari in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Sudtirol (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bari have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bari's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Sudtirol. A 0.60 PPG lead over Bari (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Bari in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sudtirol lead 3W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Sudtirol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 56% versus Bari 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 53% | Bari 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.57 xG and Bari 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.030 / defence 1.062 | Bari attack 0.867 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.160. Data: 75 Sudtirol games / 75 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 48% | Draw 27% | Bari 25%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Bari 4.00. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 80% | Bari 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 48% | Draw 27% | Bari 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Sudtirol 1.57 / Bari 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.030 / def 1.062 | Bari attack 0.867 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Bari xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Bari kick off?
Sudtirol vs Bari kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Bari?
Sudtirol 0 - 0 Bari.
Where is Sudtirol vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Bari part of?
Sudtirol vs Bari is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 48% chance of winning, Bari a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sudtirol and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Bari?
Record (5 meetings): Sudtirol 3W | Draws 0 | Bari 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Bari in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Bari (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (1.03) and Bari's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.87x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.64
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.64
1.07
Bari xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
5%
19.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.07 for Bari, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 24W 20D 31L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Bari's form line: 18W 34D 23L from 75 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.17 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.35 PPG from 37 outings (13W 11D 13L).
On the road, Bari have gone 5W 16D 16L from 37 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.09 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari in 60%.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Bari in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 24W 20D 31L in their last 75 games (1.23 PPG), while Bari have gone 18W 34D 23L in their last 75 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Bari away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.35 PPG; Bari away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 22 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sudtirol
4
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Bari?
From 10 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 4, Bari have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Bari?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 57%, Bari 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Sudtirol) and 40% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 27% of games; Bari in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Bari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sudtirol's games and 57% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Sudtirol's recent games and 40% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Bari tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bari in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sudtirol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Bari finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.57 xG and Bari 1.07 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sudtirol fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bari landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Bari attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 48% | Draw 27% | Bari 25%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 53%, Bari 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.23 PPG, Bari 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.