Sudtirol 1-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Bari in Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals. Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Sudtirol (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sudtirol's home record at Stadio Marco Druso: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.
Bari have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bari's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.60 for Bari. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 45% versus Bari 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 26% | Bari 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.03 xG and Bari 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.783 / defence 0.934 | Bari attack 1.173 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.063. Sudtirol's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Sudtirol games / 38 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 30% | Draw 32% | Bari 37%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Bari 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Bari 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 30% | Draw 32% | Bari 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Sudtirol 1.03 / Bari 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.783 / def 0.934 | Bari attack 1.173 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Bari (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Bari xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Bari kick off?
Sudtirol vs Bari kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 29 May 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Bari?
Sudtirol 1 - 0 Bari.
Where is Sudtirol vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Bari part of?
Sudtirol vs Bari is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 30% chance of winning, Bari a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sudtirol and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Bari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Bari in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Bari (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.78) and Bari's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (1.17x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
30%
3.28
32%
3.08
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.20
1.16
Bari xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
10%
10.51
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.16 for Bari, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 15W 16D 7L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Bari's form line: 17W 14D 7L from 38 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.71 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (7W 10D 2L).
On the road, Bari have gone 10W 5D 4L from 19 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.53 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Bari in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Bari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Bari in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 15W 16D 7L in their last 38 games (1.61 PPG), while Bari have gone 17W 14D 7L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.63 PPG; Bari away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bari in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sudtirol
4
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Bari?
From 10 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 4, Bari have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Sudtirol 0-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Bari?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 58%, Bari 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Sudtirol and 37% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bari in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 47% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Sudtirol's recent games and 37% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Bari tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bari in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Bari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Bari 1-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.03 xG and Bari 1.16 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bari landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.78 / defence 0.93 against Bari attack 1.17 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 30% | Draw 32% | Bari 37%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 26%, Bari 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bari's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.61 PPG, Bari 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.