Spezia 0-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Reggiana at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia at Stadio Alberto Picco this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggiana have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Spezia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spezia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Reggiana in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Spezia have won 1, Reggiana 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Reggiana 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 38% | Reggiana 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.07 xG and Reggiana 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.764 / defence 1.089 | Reggiana attack 0.824 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.116. Spezia's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Spezia games / 64 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 36% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 32%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Reggiana 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Spezia 60% | Reggiana 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 36% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Spezia 1.07 / Reggiana 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.764 / def 1.089 | Reggiana attack 0.824 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Spezia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Reggiana xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Reggiana kick off?
Spezia vs Reggiana kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Reggiana?
Spezia 0 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Spezia vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Reggiana part of?
Spezia vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 36% chance of winning, Reggiana a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Spezia and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Reggiana?
Record (5 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 2 | Reggiana 2W.
What form are Spezia and Reggiana in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Reggiana (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Spezia's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
36%
2.79
32%
3.12
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.07
1.00
Reggiana xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Spezia and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Spezia and 1.00 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spezia's recent record stands at 23W 21D 20L from 64 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggiana, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 28L across 64 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.41 PPG, Reggiana on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 14W 8D 10L from 32 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggiana's away record stands at 7W 8D 17L across 32 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.09 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 23W 21D 20L in their last 64 games (1.41 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 17W 19D 28L in their last 64 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Reggiana away?
Spezia's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.56 PPG; Reggiana away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Spezia or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Reggiana in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Reggiana runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spezia's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
2
Draws
3
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Reggiana?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Reggiana have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Spezia 0-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 53%, Reggiana 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Spezia) and 47% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Reggiana in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Reggiana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Spezia's games and 59% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Spezia's recent games and 47% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Reggiana tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Spezia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Spezia 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.07 xG and Reggiana 1.00 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Spezia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.76 / defence 1.09 against Reggiana attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 36% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 32%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 38%, Reggiana 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggiana's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.41 PPG, Reggiana 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Reggiana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.