Spezia 0-2 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Alberto Picco to face Spezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 August 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Spezia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Spezia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 5W 1D 4L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Carrarese haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Carrarese away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Spezia, 1.30 for Carrarese — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Spezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Carrarese in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Spezia 2W, Carrarese 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 4–0 with Spezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Carrarese — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 45% versus Carrarese 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 40% | Carrarese 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.57 xG and Carrarese 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.135 / defence 0.990 | Carrarese attack 0.930 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.129. Data: 38 Spezia games / 38 Carrarese games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Spezia 48% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 24%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Carrarese 4.17. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 60% | Carrarese 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 48% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Spezia 1.57 / Carrarese 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.135 / def 0.990 | Carrarese attack 0.930 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Spezia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Carrarese xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Carrarese kick off?
Spezia vs Carrarese kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Carrarese?
Spezia 0 - 2 Carrarese.
Where is Spezia vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Carrarese part of?
Spezia vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 48% chance of winning, Carrarese a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Spezia and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Carrarese?
Record (2 meetings): Spezia 2W | Draws 0 | Carrarese 0W.
What form are Spezia and Carrarese in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Spezia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Spezia's attack rating (1.14) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.93x) against Spezia's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.63
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.60
1.04
Carrarese xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
5%
19.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Spezia and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Spezia and 1.04 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Spezia's recent record stands at 17W 14D 7L from 38 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. Spezia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 15L across 38 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. Carrarese haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Spezia by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Carrarese heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 11W 4D 4L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carrarese's away record stands at 1W 7D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.03 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Pre-Season
Carrarese
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 17W 14D 7L in their last 38 games (1.71 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Carrarese away?
Spezia's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.95 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Spezia or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Carrarese in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Carrarese have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spezia won 0-4 on 19 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Spezia
0
Draws
2
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 2, Carrarese have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Carrarese 3-1 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 53%, Carrarese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Spezia) and 47% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Carrarese in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Spezia's games and 58% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Spezia's recent games and 47% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Carrarese tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carrarese cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Spezia 0-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.57 xG and Carrarese 1.04 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Carrarese outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.14 / defence 0.99 against Carrarese attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 48% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 24%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Carrarese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 40%, Carrarese 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Carrarese's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Carrarese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carrarese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.