Spezia 1-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Spezia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Bari travel to Stadio Alberto Picco to take on Spezia. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 November 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Picco, Spezia have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Bari have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Bari have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bari are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spezia register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Bari in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Spezia, 1 for Bari and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Bari winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bari in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 46% versus Bari 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spezia 40% | Bari 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.46 xG and Bari 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.830 / defence 1.229 | Bari attack 0.915 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.095. Bari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Spezia games / 48 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 39% | Draw 32% | Bari 29%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Bari 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bari (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 80% | Bari 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 39% | Draw 32% | Bari 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Spezia 1.46 / Bari 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.830 / def 1.229 | Bari attack 0.915 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Spezia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Bari xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Bari kick off?
Spezia vs Bari kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 7 November 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Bari?
Spezia 1 - 1 Bari.
Where is Spezia vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Bari part of?
Spezia vs Bari is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 39% chance of winning, Bari a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Spezia and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Bari?
Record (4 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 2 | Bari 1W.
What form are Spezia and Bari in?
Spezia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Bari (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Spezia's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
39%
2.54
32%
3.14
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.69
1.23
Bari xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
7%
14.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Spezia and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Spezia and 1.23 for Bari, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Spezia have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 18W 17D 13L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari's form line: 13W 21D 14L from 48 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.48 PPG, Bari on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L).
On the road, Bari have gone 3W 10D 11L from 24 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bari's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.06 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Bari in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 18W 17D 13L in their last 48 games (1.48 PPG), while Bari have gone 13W 21D 14L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Bari away?
Spezia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.50 PPG; Bari away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Spezia or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bari in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Bari runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Spezia's record when hosting Bari specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
4
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Bari have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Bari 0-0 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 54%, Bari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spezia) and 42% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bari in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Spezia's recent matches and 50% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Spezia's recent games and 42% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Bari tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bari in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Bari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia and Bari finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.46 xG and Bari 1.23 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.83 / defence 1.23 against Bari attack 0.92 / defence 1.28, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 39% | Draw 32% | Bari 29%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 40%, Bari 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Bari's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.48 PPG, Bari 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.