Spal 0-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Pisa at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spal vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Paolo Mazza plays host to Spal versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Monday 26 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spal have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spal have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Paolo Mazza — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Pisa arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Spal 0W, Pisa 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Spal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 54% versus Pisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 43% | Pisa 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.23 xG and Pisa 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.135 / defence 1.210 | Pisa attack 0.955 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.085. Data: 56 Spal games / 56 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 34% | Draw 32% | Pisa 35%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Pisa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spal 50% | Pisa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 34% | Draw 32% | Pisa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Spal 1.23 / Pisa 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.135 / def 1.210 | Pisa attack 0.955 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Pisa (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Pisa xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Pisa kick off?
Spal vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Pisa?
Spal 0 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Spal vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Pisa part of?
Spal vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 34% chance of winning, Pisa a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Spal and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Pisa?
Record (2 meetings): Spal 0W | Draws 1 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Spal and Pisa in?
Spal (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Pisa (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Spal's attack at 1.14x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.95x) against Spal's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
34%
2.98
32%
3.17
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Spal xG
Total xG
2.48
1.25
Pisa xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
10%
10.44
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Spal and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Spal and 1.25 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spal come into this having played 56 games, going 13W 23D 20L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.50 PPG from 56 outings (21W 21D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Spal against 1.50 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Spal's home form reads 7W 10D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.14 points per game from 28 outings (7W 11D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spal are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.29 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Pisa in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 13W 23D 20L in their last 56 games (1.11 PPG), while Pisa have gone 21W 21D 14L in their last 56 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.11 PPG; Pisa away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Spal or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Pisa in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spal have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spal
1
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 1, Pisa have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2023, when Pisa 1-2 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 64%, Pisa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Spal) and 32% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Spal's games and 54% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Spal's recent games and 32% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Pisa tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Pisa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Spal 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Spal 0-1 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.23 xG and Pisa 1.25 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Spal fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.14 / defence 1.21 against Pisa attack 0.95 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 34% | Draw 32% | Pisa 35%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 43%, Pisa 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.11 PPG, Pisa 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.