Spal 0-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genoa make the trip to Stadio Paolo Mazza to face Spal in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spal have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Spal have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Spal's home record at Stadio Paolo Mazza: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Genoa (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Genoa have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Spal against 1.40 for Genoa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Spal half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 59% versus Genoa 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 48% | Genoa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.32 xG and Genoa 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.065 / defence 1.015 | Genoa attack 0.819 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.055. Data: 44 Spal games / 6 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 47% | Draw 28% | Genoa 25%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Genoa 4.00. Spal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spal at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spal if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spal 50% | Genoa 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 47% | Draw 28% | Genoa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Spal 1.32 / Genoa 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.065 / def 1.015 | Genoa attack 0.819 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Spal (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Spal xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Genoa xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Genoa kick off?
Spal vs Genoa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Genoa?
Spal 0 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Spal vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Genoa part of?
Spal vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 47% chance of winning, Genoa a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Spal and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spal and Genoa in?
Spal (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Genoa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Spal's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.82x) against Spal's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.54
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Spal xG
Total xG
2.19
0.88
Genoa xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
7%
15.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Spal and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Spal and 0.88 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Spal's recent record stands at 11W 18D 15L from 44 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Spal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 7W 18D 19L across 44 games — 0.89 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Spal against 0.89 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Spal have managed 6W 8D 8L from 22 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 3W 8D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Spal are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.77 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Genoa in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 11W 18D 15L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Genoa have gone 7W 18D 19L in their last 44 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Genoa away?
Spal's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.18 PPG; Genoa away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Spal
0
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Spal have won 0, Genoa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Genoa 3-0 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 64%, Genoa 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Spal) and 41% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Spal's recent matches and 41% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spal vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Spal's recent games and 41% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Genoa tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Genoa in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Spal 0-2 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.32 xG and Genoa 0.88 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spal fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Genoa outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Genoa attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 47% | Draw 28% | Genoa 25%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Genoa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 48%, Genoa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.16 PPG, Genoa 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.