Spal 0-2 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spal host Brescia at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spal stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal at Stadio Paolo Mazza this season: 2W 3D 3L from 8 home games — 1.12 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brescia — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia away from home this season: 6W 1D 1L from 8 away games — 2.38 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.38 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spal 1.30 PPG, Brescia 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Spal in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Brescia in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 62% versus Brescia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 50% | Brescia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.30 xG and Brescia 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.198 / defence 1.558 | Brescia attack 1.099 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 0.978 / away 1.199. Data: 16 Spal games / 16 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 24% | Draw 22% | Brescia 54%. Fair-value odds: Spal 4.17 | Draw 4.55 | Brescia 1.85. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Spal 88% | Brescia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 24% | Draw 22% | Brescia 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG Spal 1.30 / Brescia 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.198 / def 1.558 | Brescia attack 1.099 / def 1.112 | league avg home 0.978 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Brescia (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Spal xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Brescia xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Brescia kick off?
Spal vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Brescia?
Spal 0 - 2 Brescia.
Where is Spal vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Brescia part of?
Spal vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 24% chance of winning, Brescia a 54% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Spal and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Brescia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spal and Brescia in?
Spal (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Brescia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Spal's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
24%
4.23
22%
4.55
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Spal xG
Total xG
3.36
2.05
Brescia xG
4.23
24%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
13%
7.80
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
3%
33.00
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Spal and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Spal and 2.05 for Brescia, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spal come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 5D 6L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.88 PPG from 16 outings (9W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Spal — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Spal's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 2.38 points per game from 8 outings (6W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.88 PPG overall record — Brescia travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spal are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.69 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spal have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Brescia in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Brescia have gone 9W 3D 4L in their last 16 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.12 PPG; Brescia away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Spal or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Brescia in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spal and Brescia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spal's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spal
2
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Brescia?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 0, Brescia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Spal 2-2 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Spal at 88%, Brescia at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Spal and 50% for Brescia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brescia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Brescia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Spal's games and 50% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Spal's matches and 50% of Brescia's.
Do Spal and Brescia tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Brescia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Spal 0-2 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.30 xG and Brescia 2.05 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spal fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.20 / defence 1.56 against Brescia attack 1.10 / defence 1.11, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 24% | Draw 22% | Brescia 54%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 50%, Brescia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Brescia's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Spal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Brescia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.