Spal 1-2 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Benevento travel to Stadio Paolo Mazza to take on Spal. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Spal — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spal have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Paolo Mazza — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Benevento have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Spal at 1.40 PPG versus Benevento's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Spal, 0 for Benevento and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Spal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Spal trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Benevento trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 54% versus Benevento 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 44% | Benevento 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.38 xG and Benevento 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.198 / defence 0.992 | Benevento attack 0.907 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.076. Data: 50 Spal games / 50 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 46% | Draw 29% | Benevento 26%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Benevento 3.85. Spal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spal as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spal 40% | Benevento 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 46% | Draw 29% | Benevento 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Spal 1.38 / Benevento 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.198 / def 0.992 | Benevento attack 0.907 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Spal (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Spal xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Benevento xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Benevento kick off?
Spal vs Benevento kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Benevento?
Spal 1 - 2 Benevento.
Where is Spal vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Benevento part of?
Spal vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 46% chance of winning, Benevento a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Spal and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Benevento?
Record (2 meetings): Spal 1W | Draws 1 | Benevento 0W.
What form are Spal and Benevento in?
Spal (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Benevento (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Spal's attack at 1.20x the league average against Benevento's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.48
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Spal xG
Total xG
2.35
0.97
Benevento xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
6%
15.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Spal and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Spal and 0.97 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spal come into this having played 50 games, going 12W 21D 17L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.52 PPG from 50 outings (21W 13D 16L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spal on 1.14 PPG, Benevento on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Spal's home form reads 7W 9D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Benevento have taken 1.48 points per game from 25 outings (10W 7D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Spal are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.40 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Benevento in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 12W 21D 17L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Benevento have gone 21W 13D 16L in their last 50 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.20 PPG; Benevento away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Spal or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Benevento in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spal and Benevento runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spal's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Spal
1
Draws
1
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 2, Benevento have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Benevento 1-3 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Benevento?
Spal have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 60%, Benevento 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Spal) and 24% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Benevento in 36%; Benevento in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Spal's recent matches and 36% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spal vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Spal's recent games and 24% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Benevento tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Benevento in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Benevento defy the odds to beat Spal 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Spal 1-2 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.38 xG and Benevento 0.97 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Benevento outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.20 / defence 0.99 against Benevento attack 0.91 / defence 0.94, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 46% | Draw 29% | Benevento 26%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Benevento win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 44%, Benevento 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Benevento's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.14 PPG, Benevento 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.