Spal 1-1 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ascoli at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Ascoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Paolo Mazza plays host to Spal versus Ascoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 21 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Spal (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's home record at Stadio Paolo Mazza: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Ascoli's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ascoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Ascoli have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Spal against 1.00 for Ascoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Spal 1W, Ascoli 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Spal half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ascoli half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 52% versus Ascoli 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spal 41% | Ascoli 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.20 xG and Ascoli 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.038 / defence 1.160 | Ascoli attack 1.082 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.057. Data: 58 Spal games / 58 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 33% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 39%. Fair-value odds: Spal 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Ascoli 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ascoli at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Spal 50% | Ascoli 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 33% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Spal 1.20 / Ascoli 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.038 / def 1.160 | Ascoli attack 1.082 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Ascoli xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Ascoli kick off?
Spal vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Ascoli?
Spal 1 - 1 Ascoli.
Where is Spal vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Ascoli part of?
Spal vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 33% chance of winning, Ascoli a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Spal and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Ascoli?
Record (3 meetings): Spal 1W | Draws 1 | Ascoli 1W.
What form are Spal and Ascoli in?
Spal (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Ascoli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Spal's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Ascoli's attack (1.08x) against Spal's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
33%
3.04
28%
3.53
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Spal xG
Total xG
2.53
1.33
Ascoli xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Spal and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Spal and 1.33 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Spal's recent record stands at 14W 23D 21L from 58 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 19L across 58 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ascoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Spal against 1.50 for Ascoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Spal have managed 7W 10D 12L from 29 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 15W 5D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Spal are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.29 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Ascoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 14W 23D 21L in their last 58 games (1.12 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 24W 15D 19L in their last 58 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.07 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spal have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ascoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spal
2
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Ascoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Spal have won 1, Ascoli have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2023, when Spal 1-1 Ascoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 62%, Ascoli 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Spal) and 41% (Ascoli).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Ascoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Spal's games and 52% of Ascoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Spal's recent games and 41% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Ascoli tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spal and Ascoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 21, as Spal and Ascoli drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.20 xG and Ascoli 1.33 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.04 / defence 1.16 against Ascoli attack 1.08 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 33% | Draw 28% | Ascoli 39%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 41%, Ascoli 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Ascoli's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spal 1.12 PPG, Ascoli 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.