Spal 2-3 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Alessandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spal host Alessandria at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spal stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 1L across 6 games at Stadio Paolo Mazza this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Alessandria — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Alessandria have posted 0W 1D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.17 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.17 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Spal at 1.10 PPG versus Alessandria's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Spal trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Alessandria trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 58% versus Alessandria 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spal 42% | Alessandria 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.76 xG and Alessandria 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.208 / defence 1.284 | Alessandria attack 0.786 / defence 1.443. League average goals — home 1.011 / away 1.142. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.443 — this is suppressing Spal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Spal games / 12 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 51% | Draw 26% | Alessandria 24%. Fair-value odds: Spal 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Alessandria 4.17. Spal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spal as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Spal 83% | Alessandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 51% | Draw 26% | Alessandria 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Spal 1.76 / Alessandria 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.208 / def 1.284 | Alessandria attack 0.786 / def 1.443 | league avg home 1.011 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Spal (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Alessandria xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Alessandria kick off?
Spal vs Alessandria kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Alessandria?
Spal 2 - 3 Alessandria.
Where is Spal vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Alessandria part of?
Spal vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 51% chance of winning, Alessandria a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Spal and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Alessandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spal and Alessandria in?
Spal (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Alessandria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Spal's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Alessandria's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Alessandria's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
51%
1.98
26%
3.91
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Spal xG
Total xG
2.92
1.15
Alessandria xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
4%
24.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Spal and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Spal and 1.15 for Alessandria, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spal come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 5D 4L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alessandria sit at 0.67 PPG from 12 outings (2W 2D 8L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Alessandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Spal's home form reads 2W 3D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Alessandria have taken 0.17 points per game from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alessandria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Spal are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 0.92 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Alessandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Alessandria away?
Spal's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.50 PPG; Alessandria away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spal and Alessandria runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Spal
1
Draws
1
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Spal have won 0, Alessandria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Alessandria 2-2 Spal.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Alessandria?
Alessandria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Spal at 83%, Alessandria at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Spal) and 33% (Alessandria).
On the defensive side: Alessandria in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Alessandria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Spal's games and 50% of Alessandria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spal vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Spal's recent games and 33% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Alessandria tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Alessandria in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alessandria defy the odds to beat Spal 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alessandria beat Spal 2-3 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.76 xG and Alessandria 1.15 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Alessandria outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.21 / defence 1.28 against Alessandria attack 0.79 / defence 1.44, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 51% | Draw 26% | Alessandria 24%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Alessandria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 42%, Alessandria 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Alessandria's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Spal arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Alessandria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alessandria (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.